RLPB 423. North Korea: Talks the Only Option

Religious Liberty Prayer Bulletin | RLPB 423 | Wed 13 Sep 2017

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NORTH KOREA: TALKS THE ONLY OPTION
plus China Update: Gao Zhisheng
plus Yemen Update: Father Tom Uzhunnalil

by Elizabeth Kendal

As noted in RLPB 403 (19 April), 'North Korea will not willingly disarm, but will retain its weapons program for the purpose of deterrence.' After all, the regime saw what happened in 2003 to Iraq's Saddam Hussein (who did not have a nuclear deterrent), and in 2011 to Libya's Muammar Gaddafi (who had relinquished all his nuclear weapons). In both cases, the West facilitated regime change, ensuring these former allies fell into the hands of their enemies: Saddam was executed by Shi'ite forces, whilst Gaddafi was brutalised to death by al-Qaeda-linked jihadists. Both countries were essentially destroyed. Russian President Vladimir Putin said as much last week. While he condemned North Korea's nuclear provocations, President Putin rejected the idea that UN sanctions were a solution. 'Sanctions of any kind,' he said, 'are useless and ineffective in this case ... [The North Koreans] will eat grass, but they will not abandon this [nuclear] program unless they feel safe.'

Sanctions will not work, but neither can there be a military solution for as the US Defense Department and everyone in the region knows, the cost to South Korea -- in lives and infrastructure -- would be absolutely catastrophic. Though war is not an option, on Sunday 10 September US Senator John McCain called for Washington to ratchet up the pressure by stepping up its presence in the region to 'make sure that Kim Jong-un knows that if he acts in an aggressive fashion, the price will be extinction.' Such language would surely cause considerable distress to millions of Christians around the world who don't want to see North Korea's long-suffering remnant Church obliterated in US 'fire and fury'.   

North Korea in the dark
(Satellite image) click on map to enlarge

If sanctions are not the solution and war is out of the question, what are we left with? It leaves us with the possibility of returning to six-party talks (North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia and the USA). Ultimately, what the Kim regime wants is a bi-lateral treaty with the USA: one that recognises North Korea as a nuclear power, taking regime change off the table. North Korea also wants to be recognised as a sovereign independent state, taking reunification off the table (at least for the foreseeable future). Some analysts insist the crisis (most of which is theatre and posturing) is approaching its 'end game' and that resolution and dialogue, not war, will be the outcome. That said, the situation remains incredibly volatile -- an angry or accidental slip could jeopardise everything.

Should a resolution be reached, South Korea, China and Russia (i.e. North Korea's neighbours) are ready to invest in such a way as to facilitate North Korea's economic development. This is critical, for North Korea cannot truly open up to the world until it has radically improved the living standards of its people. Hence the endless balancing act: when risk is perceived to be high, repression and belligerence are extreme; however, when risk is perceived to be low, engagement and reform inch tentatively forward. There really is no alternative to returning to the days of inching forward. South Korea's new President Moon Jae-in, whose parents fled the north during the Korean War, is eager to re-establish dialogue and co-operation, as are Russia and China. However, the Kim regime will not negotiate until the US concedes that North Korea is indeed a nuclear power (hence the endless missile tests). Even if talks resume, treaties are signed and normalisation occurs, it will be many years before North Korea can truly open up to the outside world without risking collapse. What is more important though is that conditions inside North Korea improve, including the issue of religious freedom for the long-suffering North Korean Church.


PLEASE PRAY SPECIFICALLY FOR GOD TO:

* preserve, protect, bless and strengthen the long-suffering North Korean Church – both the Church in the labour camps and the Church deep 'underground'.

* intervene in the Korean crisis creatively, according to his wisdom, to fulfil his good purposes, that ultimately North Korea's faithful remnant Church might be liberated to worship freely, to be salt and light and yeast in society, and to bring healing to the North.

'Lift up your heads, O gates! And lift them up, O ancient doors, that the King of glory may come in.' From Psalm 24

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Further reading on North Korea:
by Elizabeth Kendal, Religious Liberty Monitoring
North Korea: Belligerence vs 'Smart Policy' (19 Feb 2014)
North Korea: Positive Changes (24 Aug 2007)
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CHINA UPDATE: It has been confirmed that Christian human rights lawyer Gao Zhisheng, who had been reported 'missing' [RLPB 421 (30 Aug)], is in police custody in Beijing. Analysts expect he will remain in custody until after the week-long Chinese Communist Party's 19th Congress, which commences on 18 October.

YEMEN UPDATE: Father Tom Uzhunnalil, kidnapped by jihadists in Yemen in March 2016 [see RLPB 386 (27 July 2016)], was released from captivity on 12 September, after the Indian and Omani governments secured his release. He is currently in Rome, where he will spend a few days before returning to his home in Kerala, India. Praise God for this mercy.


SUMMARY FOR BULLETINS UNABLE TO RUN THE WHOLE ARTICLE
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TALKS WITH NORTH KOREA ARE THE ONLY OPTION

North Korea will not abandon its nuclear weapons program. Sanctions will not work and a military solution is untenable as the impact on South Korea would be catastrophic. The only option is dialogue. However, the Kim regime will not negotiate until the US concedes that North Korea is a nuclear power. The regime maintains that nuclear deterrence is essential if North Korea is to be spared US-backed regime change. Many analysts believe the crisis is approaching its 'end game' and that dialogue, not war, will be the outcome. Whilst it would be many years before North Korea could open up to the outside world without risking collapse, the situation inside North Korea could improve considerably over time. Please pray for North Korea and its long-suffering Church in the labour camps and 'underground'.

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Elizabeth Kendal is an international religious liberty analyst and advocate. She serves as Director of Advocacy at Canberra-based Christian Faith and Freedom (CFF), and is an Adjunct Research Fellow at the Arthur Jeffery Centre for the Study of Islam at Melbourne School of Theology.

She has authored two books: Turn Back the Battle: Isaiah Speaks to Christians Today (Deror Books, Melbourne, Australia, Dec 2012) which offers a Biblical response to persecution and existential threat; and, After Saturday Comes Sunday: Understanding the Christian Crisis in the Middle East (Wipf and Stock, Eugene, OR, USA, June 2016).

See www.ElizabethKendal.com 

RLPB 422. Nigeria: Muslim Youths 'Beat Drums of War'

Religious Liberty Prayer Bulletin | RLPB 422 | Wed 06 Sep 2017

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BACKGROUND: Initially, the British colonialists who arrived in Nigeria in the late 19th and early 20th centuries favoured the northern Hausa and Fulani Muslims, describing them as fair-skinned, fine featured, organised and civilised. Like the northern Muslims, the British viewed the southern Yoruba (in the West) and Igbo (in the East) as black savages, fit for little more than slavery. However, whereas the northern Hausa and Fulani Muslims resisted all things British, the southern Yoruba and Igbo embraced British education and Christianity. At independence (1960) more than a million educated and mostly Christian Igbos were living in the Muslim north, dominating administration and business. Needless to say, the Hausa-Fulani Muslims were not impressed.  After the 29 July 1966 Hausa-led military coup, a campaign of ethnic cleansing targeting the Igbo was unleashed across the North in which some 30,000 Igbo were killed and a further 1.3 million were forced to flee. It was not the first anti-Igbo pogrom to hit the North, but it was the worst, leaving the Igbo convinced they had no future in a Hausa-Fulani dominated Nigeria.

On 30 May 1967 the Military Governor of Eastern Nigeria, Lt-Colonel Chukwuemeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu announced that the region formerly known as Eastern Nigeria would from now on be known as the independent, sovereign Republic of Biafra. Considering oil had been discovered in Eastern Nigeria's Niger Delta in 1956, it is unsurprising the rest of Nigeria did not approve the secession. The resulting Nigerian Civil War (1967-1970) -- also known as the Biafra War -- claimed the lives of some 100,000 mostly Muslim Nigerian military personnel and between 500,000 and two million mostly Christian Igbo civilians, most of whom perished from starvation during the Nigerian military junta's blockade of Biafra.

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NIGERIA: MUSLIM YOUTHS 'BEAT DRUMS OF WAR'
by Elizabeth Kendal

This year marks the 50th anniversary of the Nigerian Civil War (1967-1970), also known as the Biafra War. This was a war in which Nigeria's mostly northern Muslim Hausa-Fulani-dominated military junta crushed a separatist rebellion by the mostly Christian Igbo of Eastern Nigeria. Frustrated and marginalised by the government of President Muhammadu Buhari, pro-secessionist Igbo groups have again been escalating their secessionist rhetoric. In response, a coalition of Northern Muslim youth groups held a press conference in Kaduna on 6 June in which their spokesman, AbdulAziz Suleiman, issued a chilling ultimatum: Igbos would have until 1 October to leave the North, after which time they will be forcibly ejected. As all Nigerians know, this threat has a precedent because in 1966 an ethnic cleansing campaign targeting Igbo in the North left 30,000 Igbo dead, more than 1.3 million Igbo displaced and millions more convinced they had no future in a Hausa-Fulani dominated Nigeria. As the Anglican Archbishop of Jos, the Most Rev Benjamin Kwashi told Global Christian News (15 June 2017), 'Nobody, who is watching history, thinks this is a joke.'

For more information see:
'The Kaduna Declaration: Nigeria in the shadow of Biafra'
By Elizabeth Kendal, Religious Liberty Monitoring, 6 July 2017.

Since the 6 June 'Kaduna Declaration' anti-Igbo hate speech has proliferated across Northern Nigeria, spreading like wildfire on social media. Of particular concern is the emergence of hate songs, some of which call for the Igbo to be killed, others of which call for the break-up of Nigeria with the Igbo cut adrift in a reduced, oil-less 'Biafra'. One song which has become extremely popular vilifies the Igbo, blaming them for everything from drugs to terrorism. It includes the following chorus (which is repeated eight times): 'Igbos are a curse to Nigeria, whose existence and birth as a people in Nigeria is useless, that abortion is greater than the birth of the bast**ds.' 

Though the federal government vowed to arrest those responsible for the Kaduna Declaration, no arrests have been made, allegedly on the grounds that it could jeopardise Nigeria's fragile security, i.e., it could trigger widespread Muslim rioting. Nigerian leaders, including President Buhari, have expressed concern over the growing amount of hate speech, noting that the same phenomenon occurred in Rwanda before the 1994 genocide there. At a press briefing in the capital Abuja on 24 August, the spokesperson for the coalition of northern Muslim youth groups, AbdulAziz Suleiman, 'suspended' the group's 6 June quit notice and affirmed the unity of Nigeria while continuing to vilify the Igbo. On Sunday 3 September Nigeria's top Muslim spiritual leader, Sa'ad Abubakar condemned the Kaduna Declaration, openly declaring his opposition to it.

Yet, despite all efforts to calm the situation, Muslim youths across the North continue to 'beat the drums of war' and insist all Igbo must leave before 1 October. A group of UN experts has expressed 'grave concern' about the possibility of ethnic bloodshed, 'especially considering the previous history of such violence'. Few doubt that a crisis is looming and that efforts to defuse it have been half-hearted at best.


PLEASE PRAY SPECIFICALLY FOR GOD TO:

* intervene in Nigeria to calm the brewing storm; may the whole Nigerian Church unite in prayer -- nationwide, across denominational and ethnic lines -- to petition the Lord for peace and mercy.

'By awesome deeds you answer us with righteousness, O God of our salvation, the hope of all the ends of the earth ... who by his strength ... stills the roaring of the seas, the roaring of their waves, the tumult of the peoples, so that those who dwell at the ends of the earth are in awe at your signs.' (From Psalm 65:5-8 ESV)

* grace Nigeria's political, religious, civic and youth leaders with wisdom to know what to do and the courage to do it. (1 Timothy 2:1-4)

* guide and protect his vulnerable Church in the Muslim-dominated North in the face of escalating anti-Igbo hostility. (Isaiah 40:10-11)


SUMMARY FOR BULLETINS UNABLE TO RUN THE WHOLE ARTICLE
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NIGERIA: MUSLIM YOUTHS 'BEAT DRUMS OF WAR'

This year marks the 50th anniversary of the Biafra War (1967-1970), a war in which Nigeria's Muslim-dominated military junta crushed the separatist aspirations of the predominantly Christian Igbo. Whilst the Igbo are indigenous to the south-east, they live and work all over Nigeria, excelling in business and administration. On 6 June a coalition of Northern Muslim youth groups warned all Igbo in the North to leave before 1 October or be evicted forcibly. The threat has a precedent -- in 1966 an ethnic cleansing campaign targeting Igbo in the North left some 30,000 Igbo dead and more than 1.3 million displaced. Tensions are soaring once again. Anti-Igbo hate speech is proliferating across the Muslim North. Many fear a crisis is imminent. Please pray for peace in Nigeria and for its Christians.

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Elizabeth Kendal is an international religious liberty analyst and advocate. She serves as Director of Advocacy at Canberra-based Christian Faith and Freedom (CFF), and is an Adjunct Research Fellow at the Arthur Jeffery Centre for the Study of Islam at Melbourne School of Theology.

She has authored two books: Turn Back the Battle: Isaiah Speaks to Christians Today (Deror Books, Melbourne, Australia, Dec 2012) which offers a Biblical response to persecution and existential threat; and, After Saturday Comes Sunday: Understanding the Christian Crisis in the Middle East (Wipf and Stock, Eugene, OR, USA, June 2016).

See www.ElizabethKendal.com